CIPS Analog Guidance Blog

The Saint Louis University CIPS Analog Guidance is an impact-based decision support resource that uses an objective approach to find similar historical events to the upcoming forecast. By providing a conditional climatology of the forecast and historical impact data, forecasters can use the
guidance to identify significant events and the risk of high-impact threats. The impact guidance is always evolving and recent additions include historical guidance based on Practically Perfect Forecasts from SPC Storm Reports, severe composite indices such as the Derecho Composite Parameter, and NCDC Storm DataImpacts. Over the next few months additional severe composite indices will be added including the Significant Tornado Parameter. Since November of 2009, the guidance has been mentioned in over 250 NWS Area Forecast Discussions by over 35 WFOs across the country. This blog will provide analysis and training examples of how historical events can be used in the forecast process. The link for the real time guidance is here.