Hard freezes that extend deep into the FL Peninsula are a high-impact event because of the impact they can have on the citrus crop and the FL economy. The NWS WFO from Tallahassee has been using the analog impact guidance over the last few days. In fact, they mentioned it in the long-term section of their AFD 3 days before the upcoming event.
Friday, December 21, 2012
Note: The following blog post on the multi-day snow event across West Texas last December 2011 was written by NWS Forecaster, Jeff Vitale from the Weather Service Forecast Office in Lubbock, TX. If you have an interesting event to share, please contact the CIPS Analog Guidance developers.
Posted by CMG at 12/21/2012 09:25:00 AM
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
Monday, December 17, 2012
For the last couple days, model output and the Analog Guidance has been advertising a high-impact event across the Midwest on December 20th and 21st. Although the track of the model output has varied (see graphic below from the Milwaukee, WI NWS Forecast Office issued this morning), what has been consistent is that a strong area of low pressure will develop over the Southern Plains and track north-northeastward into the Great Lakes.
Posted by CMG at 12/17/2012 10:04:00 AM
Thursday, December 13, 2012
What a difference 24 hours makes. Yesterday morning's (20121212/1200) 12Z GFS 156-h forecast had a sub 984-mb surface low just southeast of New York City (top image below). This morning's (20121213/1200) 12Z GFS 132-h forecast (bottom image below) had a weaker 1004-mb surface low. For the most part, this was due to a slower and weaker midlevel trough. Although the surface low does deepen considerably in the next 12-24 h of forecasts as
Posted by CMG at 12/13/2012 08:37:00 PM
This post should be a complete reference guide when a user would like information about utilizing the analog guidance as an impact-based tool for the upcoming forecast. The ideas here are based on NWS forecaster feedback and experience in using the guidance over the past 4 years.
Posted by CMG at 12/13/2012 04:56:00 PM
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
If the 156-h forecast from the GFS 20121212/1200 model run is close to verifying, the most similar historical events indicate that from Binghamton to Albany, NY through interior New England would most likely have a white Christmas. Although timing of the system between the GFS and the consistent (as of late) European model during this period differ, there is support from the GEFS members that this threat is very credible. Fields between the top 15
Posted by CMG at 12/12/2012 09:07:00 PM